Yesterday Fev missed a crucial goal in the last minute of the Carlton game against Hawthorn. Had he kicked a goal instead of a ‘poster’ Carlton would have won the game. It shocked the crowd of 69,000  but I am sure no one was more frustrated or disappointed than Fev himself. On the same day the Eagles went down to Freo kicking 9 goals 20.

Predictably post game conversations have focussed on inaccuracy as a systemic problem in the competition. Some argue that not enough is done to develop the goal kicking skills, particularly encouraging players to have a set routine for their shot at goal.

Before we leap to conclusions let’s see the facts. The chart below shows the average ratio of goals to points since the start of the (VFL) competition. There is a surprising amount of variation in accuracy from year to year but quite clearly, there is an upward trend since the 1950s. In 1956 the average team scored 10 goals 12 behinds. In 2008 it was 14 goals 12.

So there it is. Perhaps all players don’t need a ritual like Matthew Lloyd’s and Fev’s miss was “just footy”!

When it comes to Carlton and West Coast more analysis might be needed. Carlton’s trend is upwards, although not as strong as the competition average. For West Coast there is much less data and possibly reflects the performance over than time. I’ll look at that in another post.

Finally, if you would like to see what the accuracy looks like for each team, here it is.

Data is for the Home and Away Competition to the end of 2008.
Acknowledgements: Statistics from the AFL. Analysis undertaken in Tableau Software.